Volume you can afford to lose

Profit change at expected churn
Margin after the increase
New gross profit
Current gross profit

How it works

A price rise works the same way a discount does, in reverse. The whole increase falls to profit, so a modest rise on a thin margin can transform the economics — and you can afford to lose a surprising number of customers in the process.

The break-even churn figure is what makes the decision. At a 30% margin, a 10% price rise stays profit-neutral even if you lose a quarter of your volume. Most businesses lose far less than that, which is why under-pricing is a more common error than over-pricing.

Volume you can lose = increase ÷ (margin + increase)

  • Increase — the price rise as a percentage of the current price
  • Break-even churn — the share of volume you can lose while holding gross profit flat
  • Expected churn — what you actually think will leave

Worked example

1,000 units at 500, costing 350, raising the price 10% and expecting 5% churn

Inputs

Price500
Cost350
Units1,000
Increase10%
Expected churn5%

Results

Churn you can absorb25.0%
Profit change+40,000
New margin36.4%

You can lose a quarter of your customers and break even. Losing the 5% you expect leaves you 40,000 ahead — a 27% profit gain.

Frequently asked questions

How much churn should I expect from a price rise?

Far less than most teams fear, particularly for a rise under 10% communicated with notice. The number that matters is how it compares against the break-even figure — and the gap is usually wide.

Should I raise prices for existing customers too?

Grandfathering existing customers removes almost all the churn risk but also most of the gain, since the increase only applies to new business. A middle path — raising existing prices with long notice — usually captures most of the benefit.

Why does a low margin make a price rise so powerful?

Because the increase is measured against price but lands entirely on profit. On a 10% margin, a 10% price rise doubles the profit per unit, and the break-even churn is 50%.

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