Simple payback

Discounted payback
Total cash recovered
Surplus over the investment
Verdict

How it works

Simple payback counts cashflows until they add up to the investment. It is easy to explain and widely used as a first screen, particularly where cash is tight and speed of recovery matters more than total return.

Discounted payback applies the discount rate first, so each year’s contribution is worth less than the last. It always takes longer, and the gap between the two figures is a good measure of how exposed a project is to the cost of capital.

Payback = years until cumulative cashflow ≥ initial investment

  • Simple payback — ignores the time value of money
  • Discounted payback — each year’s flow discounted before being counted
  • Fractional year — interpolated within the year the threshold is crossed

Worked example

A 2,000,000 investment against five years of cashflows at 12%

Inputs

Investment2,000,000
Flows450k, 520k, 610k, 680k, 740k
Rate12%

Results

Simple payback3.6 years
Discounted payback4.7 years
Total recovered3,000,000

Discounting adds more than a year. If the project only had a four-year life, it would never pay back in present-value terms.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good payback period?

It depends on the asset’s life and your cash position. Under three years is generally comfortable for equipment; infrastructure may reasonably take ten. What matters is that payback lands well inside the useful life.

Why is payback criticised as a measure?

Because it ignores everything after the payback point. A project paying back in two years then stopping scores better than one paying back in three and running profitably for a decade. Use it alongside NPV, never instead of it.

Which version should I use?

Discounted, if you are choosing between projects. Simple payback is fine as a rough screen or a liquidity check, but it flatters long projects by treating distant cash as though it arrived today.

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